News Digest — 12/11/24
Netanyahu’s Warning To Syria: We Want Good Relations But We Will Respond Strongly To Threats
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a warning message Tuesday evening (10th) to the new regime that will take power in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.
“We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs, however, we do intend to do what is necessary for our security,” the Prime Minister began his remarks from the Kirya in Tel Aviv.
He referred to operation ‘Bashan Arrow’ and said, “As such I approved the Air Force bombing of strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian military so that they will not fall into the hands of the jihadists.”
“This is similar to what the British Air Force did when it bombed the fleet of the Vichy regime, which was cooperating with the Nazis, so that it would not fall into the Nazis’ hands,” Netanyahu said.
He addressed the new regime in Syria and said, “We want to have relations with the new regime in Syria, but if this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons, or weapons of any kind, to Hezbollah, or attacks us – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price.”
“What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime,” Netanyahu concluded.
Yemenis Wish For Fall Of The Houthis Just As Damascus Was Liberated From Assad
The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of the Iranian-Shiite axis raises concerns for the Houthis in Yemen. There are already those who do not rule out the possibility that Sanaa will be liberated from the Houthis just as Damascus was liberated from Bashar al-Assad. “It is a matter of time before the Houthis will face the anger of the people over their injustices,” Yemeni political commentator Mahmoud al-Taher told the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.
The Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed wrote on Tuesday (10th) that the consequences of the rapid collapse of the Assad regime are not limited to Syria, and are expected to affect the entire region, especially the Iranian proxies, which include the Houthis.
The resistance axis has been subjected to extensive attacks in Lebanon and Syria in recent months, and Iran has also suffered a blow from Israel. The impact on support for militias loyal to the axis could be decisive.
Yemeni political researcher Adnan Hashem told the Qatari newspaper that the fall of Assad could certainly symbolize the end of the Axis of Resistance, or at least deal a strategic blow that should worry the Houthis and make them reconsider their steps.
“They are part of the axis, and Iran is recalculating,” said the political researcher. “Therefore, the question is whether there is an element that is able to benefit from the circumstances.”
Iran’s intervention in Syria and its protection of the regime then led the Houthis to storm Sanaa.
The researcher also noted that the collapsed regime in Syria did not have any significant relations with the Houthis as Assad recently closed the Houthi-run Yemen embassy in Damascus and asked its employees to leave Syria. At the same time, he was the first to recognize the terrorist organization and gave it military advice.
Yemeni journalist Salman al-Makrami told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the Arab region cannot be separated, especially when it comes to geopolitical changes such as the fall of the Assad regime. According to him, Iran’s intervention in Syria and its protection of the regime then led the Houthis to storm Sanaa.
The journalist explained that the fall of the city of Aleppo in 2016 to the Syrian regime and later to other cities in its territory, led to the concentration of efforts by Iran and Hezbollah in the conflict in Yemen and the Houthis’ shift from defense to offense. Therefore, he said, “the revolution of Syria will lead to the weakness of the Houthis.”
Makrami added that the Houthis’ are heavily dependent on Iran. Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, and the Hashd al-Shaabi forces, which unite Shiite militias are supported by the Iranian government. According to him, the loss of these arms makes the Houthis, for the first time since their establishment, dependent on an incompetent ally.
“Until now, the Houthis have not dared to publish a statement of support in which they mentioned the Syrian government. Their media has launched a fierce attack on the Syrian opposition,” he explained.
The Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Monday (9th) that the dramatic events in Syria have awakened the appetite of Houthi opponents who are hoping for a coup in Yemen.
While members of the terrorist organization are fearful of the developments, the opponents have not hidden their joy at Iran’s defeat in Syria, and hope that something similar will lead to the restoration of Sanaa. The chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen, Rashad al-Alimi, said: “The time has come for the Iranian regime to lift its hand from Yemen, respect its sovereignty and identity, and allow its children to build their country and create the best future that everyone deserves.”
The Yemeni people certainly have good reasons to be angry. The images of prisoners seen being released in recent days from prisons in Syria, after decades of being held in harsh and horrific conditions, remind Yemenis of what the Houthis are doing in their country. This terrorist organization also holds political opponents in prison, carries out indiscriminate arrests, and separates children from their families to take them to terror camps.
The Houthis continue to demonstrate their capabilities against Israel. On Monday (9th), they claimed responsibility for launching the drone that exploded in Yavne, and earlier this week they took additional responsibility for “attacking a military target in the south.”
Due to the Houthis support for Hamas since the beginning of the war, Israel has attacked Yemeni territory several times. Now, with the weakening of the Iranian axis, how do the Houthis intend to continue their actions in support of Gaza?
Jordanian Leaders Fear Kingdom Could Be Next To Fall
The greatest fear in the corridors of Jordanian power is being next in line after Syria – and this fear is not unfounded. Inside a kingdom numbering 11.5 million – 60% of whom are Palestinian – are also 1.3 million Syrian refugees, most considered opponents of Bashar Assad’s regime, while a minority – under covert surveillance – are suspected of being spies for the former Syrian government.
Nearly one million Iraqi refugees also pose increasing challenges for Jordanian security forces. American envoys regularly update the royal palace, all while relations between Jordan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government remain severed.
A straight and bitter line runs between Jordan and Syria: Assad’s Syria refused to sell or donate drinking water and agricultural products to Jordan. Assad and his aides mocked the Jordanian king, hinting that Syria would open its gates to any Iranian plan to take over Jordan.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Tehran following an attack involving Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel, some of which landed in Jordan. The growing Iran-Syria connection has kept Jordan security and intelligence forces on high alert.
The Jordanian Jaber order crossing near the Syrian town of Daraa has been closed since last weekend. Jordanian Interior Minister Mazin Al-Farrayeh announced that only trucks and Jordanian citizens fleeing Syria would be allowed to cross, subject to thorough inspections.
Syrian exiles in Jordan have said that they cannot currently return to their country. Celebrations broke out in Amman’s streets, where opposition flags were raised to mark Assad’s fall.
American intelligence agencies were closely monitoring the kingdom. Jordan’s king, along with its intelligence and military bodies, remain particularly vigilant toward members of the Islamic movement which has 16 representatives in Jordan’s parliament.
Concerns persist that once Syria’s new regime – whose true identity remains unclear – stabilizes, it may ally with Jordan’s rebellious factions. Jordanian sources repeatedly warned that the intentions of Syria’s new leadership remain ambiguous and require close scrutiny, as do its connections with Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s preparations, which have yet to be revealed.
Meanwhile, Syria’s Kurdish rebels remain in Turkish crosshairs, and Iran remains a looming threat. Following its setback with Assad’s downfall and the new Syrian regime’s disregard for it, Iran is unlikely to give up its efforts to gain influence in Jordan.
For now, the whereabouts of Maher Assad – brother of the ousted president and commander of the Syrian army’s Fourth Division – remain unknown. Interrogations of Syrian drug and weapons smugglers in Jordan have implicated him as the main figure behind and beneficiary of the Captagon smuggling operations into Jordan, and Jordanian security forces are tracking his activities.
Do Jihadi Terrorists Now Rule Syria? – Col. (ret.) Richard Kemp
Turkish President Erdogan, with an eye both on the destruction of Kurdish forces in northern Syria and his broader expansionary Islamist agenda, gave the green light to his terrorist proxies in Syria to move to bring down Assad. In a lightning offensive Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) burst out from Idlib, seizing the major cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs and now Damascus. Given the Assad regime’s monstrosities, many in the West have been enthusiastic about its fall, with some even hailing HTS as the good guys.
Not so fast. We can see many echoes of Afghanistan in what’s been happening in Syria. Remember how in 2021 the Taliban tried to convince the world that they had changed. Their spokesman said that they would not seek revenge on those who had collaborated with Coalition forces and the U.S.-backed government, and would even respect women’s rights and press freedom. We know how that worked out. Well, HTS is trying the same trick now.
We should not forget that HTS is a jihadist group with origins in al-Qaeda. For the time being, HTS has its sights set on control within Syria. But it is not credible that they will not turn their attention beyond the borders in time. Before welcoming the rise of HTS, we should bear in mind that the enemy of my enemy can still be my enemy.
The writer, a former commander of British troops in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK’s national crisis management committee, COBRA. (Telegraph-UK)
Khamenei Loses Everything – Eliot A. Cohen
• When Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood against Israel on October 7, 2023, he intended to deal a decisive blow against a powerful nation-state – and he succeeded. But the state his attack has devastated turned out not to be Israel, but Iran, his key sponsor.
• It is a persistent folly to believe that wars do not achieve meaningful political consequences. The past 15 months in the Middle East suggest otherwise.
• After suffering terribly on Oct. 7, Israel has pulverized Hamas, ending the threat it posed as an organized military force. Israel has likewise shattered Hezbollah in Lebanon, forcing it to accept a ceasefire after losing not only thousands of foot soldiers but much of its middle management and senior leadership.
• Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s brutal but botched war of conquest in Ukraine has undermined his other strategic goals. In Syria, Russia’s one solid foothold in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine has leached away Russian forces, depriving it of the ability to influence events. All of this set the stage for the dramatic collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
• With the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, and with the collapse of the Assad regime, Iran has suffered irrecoverable losses. It no longer has a land route to Lebanon, it has lost its most disciplined, well-armed, and effective proxies, and it failed in its two attempts to attack Israel directly while losing its main air defenses in a retaliatory strike.
The writer is a professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University and former dean of its School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Vandals Torch Car, Spray-Paint ‘Kill Israel’ In Sydney
A car located in a suburb of Sydney with a large Jewish population was torched and an anti-Israel slogan was spray-painted nearby early Wednesday morning (11th).
The incident occurred in Woollahra, southeast of Sydney, before dawn on Wednesday (11th), when two people wearing face coverings set a vehicle on fire, spray-painted the car, a second vehicle, two nearby buildings, and a footpath, local police said.
The arson and vandalism comes just days after a Melbourne synagogue was heavily damaged in another arson incident.
On Friday (6th), the Adass Israel synagogue was gutted in the fire, sparking anger at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over his government’s anti-Israel policies, amid accusations he has failed to confront surging anti-Semitism in Australia.
“The fire here at the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne was beyond despicable,” Albanese tweeted Tuesday (10th). It was terrorism.”
“I want the community to know that we will see this synagogue rebuilt. And we will see those who burned it brought to justice.”
Speaking with ABC Radio, Albanese called the Woollahra incident a “hate crime.”
This isn’t an attack on a government, this is an attack on people because they happen to be Jewish. That is what has occurred,” Albanese said.
“The idea that we have a conflict overseas and bringing it here is something that is quite contrary to what Australia was built on… this is a hate crime. It’s as simple as that,” he said.
