Jewish World Update Mar/Apr 2025
How Syria’s Conflict Affects Israel
by Avi Abelow
(JNS)—The evolving situation in Syria demands scrutiny, especially regarding its repercussions for Israel’s security and the broader Middle East’s stability. Syria has become a focal point for the intensifying Sunni-Shi’ite struggle. While Iran’s weakening influence represents a potential strategic advantage for Israel, it simultaneously introduces heightened instability in a volatile region.
Central to the Syrian conflict is the fall of President Bashar Assad’s regime, driven by the ascendance of Sunni military factions. This shift directly undermines Tehran’s long-standing strategy of maintaining a Shi’ite axis of power that spans from Iran through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon. Historically, the Assad regime served as a linchpin for Iranian influence, facilitated in part by Hezbollah’s role in suppressing the Sunni opposition. However, Israel’s decisive blows against Hezbollah in Lebanon significantly diminished this alliance’s effectiveness. The empowerment of Sunni forces in Syria not only weakened Assad but also disrupted Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, with potential reverberations in other Iranian-influenced territories, such as Iraq.
The geopolitical imbalance between the Sunni majority and the Shi’ite minority across the Middle East underscores the inherent fragility of Iran’s dominance. For decades, Iraq under Saddam Hussein functioned as a bulwark against Shi’ite expansionism. The U.S.-led overthrow of Hussein during the Second Gulf War created a power vacuum, enabling Iran’s rise. The current setbacks to Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon reverse this trajectory, with significant implications for the region’s future.
For Israel, these developments are both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the disruption of Iran’s supply lines to Hezbollah curtails a major threat. On the other hand, Syria’s fragmentation introduces new dangers. Sunni forces, many of them remnants of ISIS, emboldened by their victories, are increasingly targeting Shi’ite factions and their allies, as they did by toppling Assad’s regime. This sectarian violence has transformed the region into a tinderbox, requiring Israel to heighten its vigilance, particularly along its northern border.
Under Assad, Israel faced consistent challenges from Iranian influence but could rely on a degree of stability. With Assad deposed, the region faces the prospect of further chaos. Such instability might necessitate preemptive action by Israel to secure its borders, potentially including intervention in Syrian territories to protect Israeli citizens.
The ongoing conflict signifies a broader realignment in the Middle East, as the Sunni majority reasserts itself against the Shi’ite minority. The violent clashes between Sunni and Shi’ite factions have displaced populations across the region, with Syria serving as a harbinger of this upheaval.
Amid this chaos, Israel emerges as a unique bastion of stability. While neighboring countries grapple with bloodshed and persecution, Israel provides a sanctuary for diverse populations, including Muslims, Christians, Druze, and other minorities endangered by Sunni forces currently in Syria.
Israel’s long-term security strategy must address the instability in Lebanon and Gaza. The volatile situation in southern Lebanon necessitates a continued Israeli presence to prevent the resurgence of threats from Hezbollah and Sunni extremists. This is not an act of occupation but a defensive measure to ensure the safety of Israel’s northern territories. Iran’s exploitation of southern Lebanon and Gaza as proxies in its axis of power must inform Israel’s next steps for the entire region.
As the Middle East undergoes profound changes, Israel must adapt to secure its future. The current conflict in Syria may make reclaiming control over Gaza and southern Lebanon unavoidable, not only as a strategic necessity but also as a deterrent against those who seek to destabilize the Jewish state.
Israel remains steadfast in its commitment to protect its citizens and preserve stability amidst growing chaos. The resilient Jewish state stands ready to navigate the challenges of a shifting geopolitical landscape while safeguarding its own diverse communities.
In this renewed era of Middle Eastern power struggles and shifting alliances, Israel’s role remains pivotal, embodying strength and stability in a region fraught with uncertainty.
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