Israel and Saudi Arabia Rapidly Drifting Apart
Prospects are fading for a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Over the past several years, expectations were high that Saudi Arabia would become the next country to join the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements that formalized diplomatic, economic, and security relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Recent shifts in Saudi foreign policy, however, make normalization with Israel increasingly unlikely in the foreseeable future.
The changes in Saudi foreign policy are mainly being driven by the kingdom’s increasing geopolitical rivalry with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Formerly close partners, the two countries are now engaged in heated disputes over several issues, including economic competition, oil production quotas, and foreign policy differences. The primary flashpoint between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is that they are backing opposing factions in the conflicts in Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan.
To get the upper hand vis-à-vis the UAE, Saudi Arabia has embraced an Islamist axis led by Turkey and Qatar, two countries that are engaged in a cold war with Israel and opposed to the UAE’s close relationship with the Jewish state. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) recently signed a series of economic and defense agreements with Qatar and is considering deeper defense cooperation with Turkey. He also signed a strategic mutual defense agreement with Pakistan, the only Muslim country that possesses nuclear weapons. Analysts have described that pact as “an Islamic NATO in the making” and an “‘Islamic security alternative’ that bypasses Israeli- and American-led [defense] architectures.”
MBS’s realignment toward Turkey and Qatar has been accompanied by a Saudi media campaign against Israel in which state-backed media is taking an increasingly anti-Israel tone. The Wall Street Journal described the shift as “a further indication of the diminishing prospects for diplomatic normalization between the two Middle East powers.”
Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud recently stated that the kingdom “is not considering a normalization deal with Israel.” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud added that diplomatic relations are “‘not on the table’ without the ‘irreversible’ establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.” Likewise, MBS said that creating a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for Riyadh to institute formal relations with Jerusalem.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu replied that after Hamas’s atrocities against Israel on October 7, 2023, there will not be a Palestinian state, even if it means that there will be no normalization with Saudi Arabia. “A Palestinian state will not be established,” he said. “It is an existential threat to Israel.” He added, “We expect from anybody who wants normalization or peace with us that they not participate in efforts steered by forces or ideologies that want the opposite of peace” and “reject the legitimacy of the State of Israel.”
Ironically, the Saudi foreign policy shift has been enabled by Israel’s weakening of Iran and the concomitant rise of the Jewish state as the dominant power in the Middle East. After the joint Israeli-U.S. military operation against the Islamic Republic that began in late February 2026, the capacity of the regime in Tehran to attack its neighbors has been diminished, thus reducing the threat that made Saudi Arabia seek security cooperation with Israel in the first place.
Middle East expert Efraim Inbar noted that Saudi Arabia increasingly views the current regional security architecture as one dominated by Israel. “Israeli military successes are frightening the Saudis,” he said. “They don’t want Israel to become the strongest power in the Middle East.”
