Jewish World Update Nov/Dec 2026
The Threat Israel Is Too Tired to See
by Aleks Vilentz
(JNS)—The 36th NATO summit convened in Ankara in July—the first time in 22 years that Turkey hosted the alliance on its own soil. It included 32 leaders and tens of billions of dollars in new defense contracts, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy among the guests and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan playing host. For a state that spews the harshest anti-Israel rhetoric in the region, this moment represented the nation’s greatest level of legitimacy in years.
Israel barely noticed. After three years of war, the country is worn out; and the public’s attention is elsewhere—the unfinished settlement in Gaza, the cost of living, internal political division. Turkey has slipped to the periphery. And here, a gap opens: Israeli society sees the Turkish threat but cannot find the strength to respond to it.
A Dor Moriah Center survey conducted in June leaves no doubt that Israelis have identified the danger. Turkey is perceived as “a serious strategic threat” by 34.4% of Israelis, while another 28.5% consider it an unfriendly country. Only 4.9% see a friend or potential partner in Turkey. Ankara’s diplomatic activity in eastern Jerusalem is rated negatively by 69.9% of Jewish people; while 63.5% oppose its cultural, educational, and religious projects.
Israeli society notices the imposing figure standing in front of it. But recognition of the threat has not led to a readiness to act.
Ask an Israeli what to do about Turkish activity in eastern Jerusalem, and you’ll not hear a call for a hard response. The most common choice (45.5%) is to permit such activity under limited conditions and strict control. Not to ban it. Not to push it out. Only to control it. Another 26% even believe it may bring benefit—provided there is Israeli oversight. What dominates is not rebuff but risk management.
The same goes for the danger of potential Turkish influence on Israel’s domestic politics. The “low or no risk” reading prevails: 48% against 37%. A society that calls Turkey a strategic threat disregards its penetration inward. This is not a logical error but, rather, fatigue showing through the numbers. There is simply no resource left for one more source of anxiety.
A separate Dor Moriah survey, “Turkey’s Role in Israel’s Geopolitical Environment”—featuring 11 specialists, from secular leftists to religious right-wing politicians and analysts—also proved enlightening. Its main result is not any single assessment but a convergence across the ideological spectrum. Experts in every camp share one conclusion: Israel must ensure itself through its own deterrence configuration rather than count on outside pressure on Ankara.
Here, the two studies collide head on. The experts prescribe self-insurance. The mass survey shows a society that’s not ready for it—not for lack of understanding but for lack of strength. After all, an independent strategic configuration takes political determination, sustained attention, and a willingness to bear costs on a second front while the first stays open. These are precisely the resources that the Iran war has drained.
The result is a trap. A threat that cannot be handed off to Europe or America arrives at a society with nothing left in reserve for its own answer. Fatigue doesn’t merely dull the reaction; it cuts the power to the one strategy that works.
The experts’ consensus forecast through 2030 is “managed hostility”: cold functionalism, diplomatic relations kept to a minimum, and demonstrative confrontation alongside the real avoidance of a rupture. Nothing blows up in this scenario, but nothing gets resolved either. This lull in decisive action lets society postpone the answer because catastrophe does not arrive tomorrow.
The problem is that “managed hostility” is not a pause but a process. While Israel rests, the Turkish presence in eastern Jerusalem grows; and the Western alliance seen at the summit in Ankara arms and legitimizes Turkey. And this process does not wait for Israeli society to recover its strength.
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